We recently published our updated 15-year projections for all Renfrewshire schools, produced in partnership with industry experts and based on a bespoke version of their tried-and-tested methodology.
The projections for Park Mains High School suggest the extended school will stay within capacity. They forecast a gradual rise over the coming years, with a potential peak of 1,941 in 2033, after which the school roll should stay around 1,800 to 1,900 each year.
This differs from last year’s projections, which showed a potential peak of more than 2,100. The new projections factor in some changes, including the most up-to-date house-building data, which shows a slower build schedule than previously expected.
So while the new projections assume the same number of pupils coming through the school, they spread them across a longer period, which in turn has produced a lower peak.
We will of course continue to monitor these numbers closely against actual pupil numbers each year, and they will continue to inform our planning.
The latest projections assume the school will continue to accept the current rate of placing requests each year. If the trajectory of the projections was to change in future, we have the option to apply our long-standing admissions policy (as we already do in other schools).
This would let us limit the number of places offered to those from outwith the area, or who didn’t attend an associated primary, and ensure capacity was preserved for those within the catchment. But the current projections suggest this won’t be needed.
You can see the full Renfrewshire-wide projections and accompanying report written for councillors on our website.
