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What's Fueling Optimism in
the 2026 Housing Market?
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2026: A Transition Year, Not a Boom
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After years of tight inventory and elevated rates, economists see 2026 as a year of rebalancing. Danielle Hale (Realtor.com) calls it a "modest step toward a healthier housing market." The National Association of Realtors points to two drivers: gradually easing mortgage rates and a rising supply of homes, both helping unlock stalled activity.
Affordability is also shifting. Mark Fleming (First American) notes that income growth is expected to outpace home price appreciation for the first time in several years. Zillow's Chief Economist, Mischa Fisher, adds that buyers are gaining negotiating room from increased inventory, while sellers benefit from price stability and steadier demand. As Fisher puts it, "2026 will usher in a healthier, more balanced market… a reset year, not a rebound year."
What this means:
• Homeowners: slower appreciation, greater stability
• Buyers: more inventory and leverage
• Investors: fundamentals-driven conditions
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Why Local Insight Matters
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Geographic Divide — National trends set the stage, but outcomes will vary widely by location. Some markets will gain momentum, others will level off. Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant notes that 2026 may be "one of the most geographically divided markets we've seen in years."
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On Maui — Local policy will be a key factor shaping our market this year.
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Policy Watch: H3–H4 Zoning
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The Maui Planning Commission is scheduled to hear the proposed H3–H4 zoning district bill on Tuesday, February 24, another step in the rollout of Bill 9. High interest and testimony may extend deliberations beyond the initial hearing. The Commission does not make final decisions — it provides recommendations to the Maui County Council, which can approve, amend, or reject the bill.
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Having local insight matters more than ever. If you'd like to talk through what's anticipated in our local market and which trends to capitalize on, let's connect.
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Give me a call any time.
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Market Snapshot — January 2026
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Pending sales are low and inventory is rising, especially in the condo market. It is a great time to go shopping for Maui real estate.
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Source: Realtors Association of Maui, Inc.
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Source: Realtors Association of Maui, Inc.
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Condominiums — Buyer's Market
• Months of inventory: 15.8 months (Jan 2026)
• Inventory of condos for sale: 923 (up from 816 in Jan 2025)
• Median condo price: $629,950 (down 6.7% from $675,000)
• Average condo price: $926,475 (down 11.2% from $1,043,094)
• Days on market: 166 (up 20.3%)
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Single-Family Homes — Tipping Toward a Buyer's Market
More expensive homes sell in winter. Values are historically higher.
• Months of inventory: 7.9 months (Jan 2026)
• Inventory of homes for sale: 457 (up 10.7% from 413)
• Median home price: $1,445,000 (up 20.4%)
• Average home price: $1,934,139 (up 34.2%)
• Days on market: 186 (up 53.7%)
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Vacant Land (YTD)
• Number of land sales: 12 (down 7.7%)
• Average land sales price: $1,007,333 (down 34.1%)
• Median land sales price: $700,000 (up 19.7%)
• Total dollar volume: $12,088,000 (down 39.1%)
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Ready to discuss your options?
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What's Your Home Worth?
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Get a Complimentary Market Analysis
With inventory rising and the market shifting, understanding your home's current value has never been more important. Get a personalized, no-obligation valuation today.
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Featured Properties
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Handpicked listings worth a closer look
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Kaanapali Shores 502
$3,050,000
Lahaina, HI
Discover the pinnacle of sophistication in oceanfront living as this modern residence redefines luxury within The Kaanapali Shores Resort. Indulge in truly commanding panoramic ocean views, stretching across the Pacific to capture the majestic islands of Lanai and Molokai.
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Honua Kai - Hoku Lani SR 538
$1,300,000
Lahaina, HI
Rarely does a 700 sq ft one-bedroom partial ocean view home become available for resale at Honua Kai. This home offers both magnificent West Maui Mountain views in addition to a great partial Ocean View of Moloka’i.
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Kihei Alii Kai B303
$699,000
Kihei, HI
HOTEL-ZONED. SHORT-TERM VACATION RENTAL ALLOWED. Discover Kihei Ali'i Kai B-303 — a beautifully remodeled third-floor residence with panoramic ocean views of Kaho'olawe and Molokini.
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Latest Blogs
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Insights and resources for Maui homeowners and buyers
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