🚪Reflection and Decart are the latest to favor M&A over an IPO, with Nvidia and Amazon, respectively, in talks to acquire the AI startups, the Financial Times and Wall Street Journal reported. The deals support our hypothesis that AI companies exit via acquisitions rather than IPOs. Read more in our recent analyst note.
Plus: Bumble’s take-private, DeepSeek leads a VC round and more ⬇️
As OpenAI tries to convince investors that it’s worth $1.43 trillion, our own math puts the company’s valuation closer to $1 trillion. To close that gap, a few critical things need to happen, our research argues.
OpenAI needs to hit its goal of a $70 billion run-rate by year-end. The frontier lab is reportedly in talks to raise at least $30 billion at a $1.43 trillion valuation. That would be 20.4x the $70 billion run rate it is targeting by year-end and requires 40% run-rate growth in Q4 after growing 77% in Q3.
If the run rate climbs steadily, we estimate Q4 revenue to be near $15 billion and full-year 2026 revenue to be near $37 billion.
OpenAI needs to show that its losses are shrinking. The ChatGPT maker’s losses keep growing because its costs are almost three times its revenue.
In Q2, the company spent $2.84 for every dollar it took in as revenue. At that ratio, revenue has to grow nearly three times faster than costs before the loss shrinks. Hiring suggests that OpenAI is not slowing its spending: PitchBook data shows its headcount rose to 8,000 in October from 4,500 in March.
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Senior Research Analyst, Fund Strategies & Sustainable Investing
Private capital flowing into climate funds has peaked by some measures—climate specialist fundraising hit a high of $77.9 billion in 2023 across PE, VC and infrastructure—but a shift in priorities to energy security has kept money moving into the sector.
2025 was the strongest year on record for the broader universe of funds investing in climate, with over $200 billion in commitments, when accounting for fund commitments from vehicles investing in the space alongside other non-climate areas, according to our Climate Investing in the Private Markets report.
This is largely due to record fundraising by infrastructure vehicles, which account for most of the climate capital raised annually.
The pace has slowed in 2026 due to fundraising challenges in private markets, infrastructure fundraising cycles, and the sheer amount of capital being absorbed by AI.
Combined climate specialist fund AUM across VC, PE, and infrastructure hit $469.9 billion in 2025, projected to top $700 billion by 2030.
Recent data shows outperformance among climate funds. One-year and three-year IRRs for both climate PE and energy transition infrastructure specialist funds have beaten our broad PE and infrastructure benchmarks through 2025. These findings are directional, given limited sample sizes, but provide a positive signal for climate investors.
• Why are Americans not spending their retirement savings? Studies show that retired Americans are living unnecessarily frugally, with one woman leaving more money behind at her death than her husband had left her 18 years earlier. [The Atlantic]
• A cybersecurity attack just led to tens of millions of euros in spoiled food. Several supermarkets across Europe had their refrigeration systems hacked, pushing temperatures to over 120 degrees Fahrenheit. [Reuters]
• See a breakdown of how much a single data center costs to build. From land to contingency and escalation, four of the US’s biggest AI infrastructure builders are devoting more than Ireland’s GDP on expenditures this year. [Bloomberg]
VC DEALS
Enterprise-focused fintech startup Ramp raised a $1.85 billion round led by Dragoneer Investment Group and Thrive Capital at a $60 billion valuation, Bloomberg reported.
Nuclear energy startup Atlas Atomics, which was co-founded by Vivek Ramaswamy, raised a $400 million Series A led by General Catalyst at a $1.9 billion valuation, Bloomberg reported.
Winverse AI, a startup focused on AI for robotics, is raising a seed round led by DeepSeek at a $400 million valuation, Bloomberg reported.
Ultra, a startup building warehouse robots that pack goods for shipping, raised $62 million across two rounds: a $50 million Series A led by Framework Ventures and a $12 million seed round led by Y Combinator and NextView.
Scarlet, which specializes in certification for AI medical devices, raised a $50 million Series B led by Headline.
Sava Technologies, a London-based developer of glucose microsensors, raised a $36 million Series B led by Ascensia.
Ambi, a startup developing an app that provides insights by continuously listening to users’ conversations in the background, raised $26 million in several rounds led by Luminous Ventures.
French zero-emission aerial inspection startup HyLight secured a €13 million Series A led by Rubio Impact Ventures, DRW and Teampact Ventures.
EXITS
Amazon is in talks for a $7 billion acquisition of Decart, which develops software to switch between AI chips and is backed by investors including Adobe Ventures, The Wall Street Journal reported.
NYSE-listed IonQ agreed to acquire Insight Partners-backed cybersecurity company Elisity in a $1.3 billion deal.
Nvidia is in talks to deepen its existing investment in or acquire open-weight AI model developer Reflection AI, which is also backed by investors including Sequoia and 1789 Capital, the Financial Times reported.
BC Partners is weighing a sale of telecoms and media provider United Group‘s Croatian business, which could fetch about €700 million, Bloomberg reported.
SoftBank-backed OPay, a Nigeria-based digital payments company, is seeking to raise about $500 million in a US IPO and private placement, Bloomberg reported.
RA Capital Management-backed Bambusa Therapeutics, which develops drugs for eczema and inflammation, filed for a US IPO.
London-headquartered alternative asset manager ICG is exploring a sale of UK bingo clubs operator Buzz Bingo, Sky News reported.
Banque Misr will sell a 30% stake in Banque du Caire, a Cairo-based state-owned bank, via an IPO on the Egyptian Stock Exchange.
FUNDRAISING
Miami-based HIG Capital is looking to raise about $2.6 billion for its second infrastructure fund focused on the middle market, primarily in Europe and North America, Bloomberg reported.
Apogem Capital closed on $372 million for its fourth real assets fund.
CHART OF THE DAY
Median real estate IRRs have been declining since the global financial crisis rebound, with successive vintages getting worse from the mid-2010s to 2022.
